Hi all!
I wasn't sure if I'd be posting in June, but here we are!
Breyer made a big announcement shortly after my last post - the spring CCA event! I have not participated, despite the fact that it still has not sold out at the time I'm writing this (though they'll close it regardless of sell out in a couple hours). I know Cancion is coming up, and of course BreyerFest and all the unknowns.
Sadly, glossy Marc of Charm was not included as a CCA option, so he could still be a BFL glossy - or Hamilton could be the Surprise. Because of this "danger", I chose not to participate in the sale, even though I would have liked MorganQuest Native Sun or Adiah HP and might have liked Pepto (no interest in Sjoerd) and could have potentially used whatever I got to trade for older CCA glossies like the Sable Island Pony, Buckaroo, or maybe (probably not) Glossy Paint Me a Pepto. I even still have a lot of options of product I could put into a cart. But alas, I'll be strong and sit this one out. Maybe the current glossies will return again in the fall.
I did order Eclat from the SMC and a Classic unicorn Lysander as a travel buddy. While I'm anxiously awaiting Cancion, I didn't want to wait and order the SMC with him.
In BreyerFest news, it was confirmed in the BFL FB group that we won't see the glossies until the MORNING OF the show which is irritating, since in years past those were posted fairly early. However, we do know the overall prizes - a Big Ben and a Roxy. Neither are molds I'm really into, and my chances of winning one are quite slim anyway, but they are nice colors and I feel for the folks whose congas are affected. As far as glossy theories, here are some of my thoughts on potential reasons for holding the reveal:
1. Breyer doesn't know which models they're glossing yet and so these may be done last minute
2. They are planning to use one or more of the 2023 RR, some of which have been slim in stock this year (particularly eyeing the portrait Fjord since her team will be at BFest and she's not been in stock much so far)
3. One or more of the glossies is a strong candidate for the Surprise, and revealing ahead of time would narrow the pool down far enough that it would be easier to guess (though I think that's a bit of a tin hat take, I doubt they are placing that much importance on whether the hobby guesses the Surprise or not)
Anyway, regardless of the reason, here's my short list for potential BFL glossies. I am eliminating:
- Any model that has already been a glossy for BF or CCA
- Models whose original issue finish is glossy
- Unrealistic/fantasy models - I don't think there's ever been an unrealistic or unicorn BF prize
- Sets with more than one model (pairs and mares & foals) as previous glossy prizes have always been singles
- Non-RR such as holiday play sets & web exclusives
- Checkers
- Chocolatey
- Sporeur fra Bergi
- Marc of Charm
- Vivaldi de Besilu
- Get Rowdy
- Battlefield Angel HP
- Orren Mixer Appaloosa
- Sweetwater's Zorah Belle
- ATP Power
- RD Marciea Bey
- Emma re-release (though this is a hard MAYBE considering how new she is and the sash)
Out of these, I think Marc of Charm and Battlefield Angel are on the molds most likely to show up as the Surprise and could be "spoilers" for what is NOT the Surprise if released too early (though again, I don't put a ton of stock in that theory). Latigo & Roxy were already Surprises, Bristol & Zafirah are other SR in the lineup, El Pastor is too vintage, ATP & the Mixer Appy are new for 2023 so that disqualifies them for the Surprise (the pattern for the Surprise mold not having another new introduction in the same year is ironclad thus far), and the Icelandic I think may be too small - pony-ish molds like Flash and Croi are still full-horse sized mold wise.
I would obviously be in love with a Glossy Marc of Charm, but I do also semi-conga Wyatt so ATP Power would be pretty cool, and same for Latigo/Checkers. I am also really liking the Fjord mare so far, I think I'd fall in love with her too. I would not have strong feelings about the others but of course if I'm lucky enough to win one I would be super grateful!
Breyer has also revealed 5 of the Auction lots this week - Huck, Arab Mare/Oasis, Stretch Morgan, Pacer, and Ashquar. Two lots within this section are hidden lots (could be the raffles, or just ones they save for last minute reveals as they do a few of those each year). None of the colors really speak to me, no conga molds, and the Auction is not something I can afford to participate in anyway.
We are still waiting to see what the Raffle horses are! I'm sticking to my predictions that one will be a Cancion, and the other will be another recent PC mold that hasn't been a raffle yet based on recent patterns.
As far as the Surprise, I think a few of my previous picks have once again been removed. Let's see what I'm down to:
- ASB Stallion (much older at this point than any other Surprise except the QHG. CB's been the oldest at 16 years old when his Surprise run was, last year. But I like this pick due to the breed type - Breyer used him as a portrait for a Dutch Harness Horse once - plus he's a Moody mold and we haven't had one of her molds as a Surprise in a few years. He's still fairly popular for his age too)
- Vermeer (I think he's a little on the young side, but he's very fitting breed wise and as I've said before, he's a bit less popular than some others of a similar age. Plus he's had fewer releases compared to similar aged molds)
- Hamilton (Unfortunately still can't rule him out yet, but the good news is that IF he's Glossy Marc of Charm for the show, he very likely will not also be the Surprise. There's been no overlap between those categories before, and I'm sure Breyer's well aware how mean that would be to the hobby to have him as both in the same year. The only one worse at this point would probably be Fireheart)
- Wixom (I don't count her out so much for size as I do age. But she's around the same age as the ASB, so theoretically it could work if he's not considered too old. There is also already a draft in the lineup, Wells, so that could count against her)
- Bobby Jo/Cow Horse (I think if they go with a "Western" interpretation of Stagecoach, she's got the high action pose. This would still be bad for me since I conga her too, but not nearly as bad as Hamilton. I'd still want to get as many as possible, but it won't be full on worst case scenario. Especially if I'm not totally in love with all the colors)
- Goffert (Also kind of older, but Friesians are a carriage breed, and if Breyer chose not to go with Vermeer, Goffert would be a reasonable choice as well. He's also a Moody mold and has been on people's prediction lists for years!)
- Brishen (Fluffy feet version - He's been used a lot lately, and with so many variant options I am surprised he's never been in this role. He was also in the Auction last year [same with Hammy], but that pattern of "Auction last year Surprise this year" has not been actively consistent since 2018/2019, and for the few years it did happen it could have been more coincidence than particular planning on Breyer's part. One factor that may restrict Brishen is that his tiny version is a Limited Edition (Best of BFest set), and we don't have enough data yet to prove the Stablemate versions count for "having another release in the same year" especially concerning BreyerFest itself)
- Bluegrass Bandit (Honestly if they do a gaited horse, ASB or Ham is probably more likely, but BGB is still pretty popular for her age and could have a large variety of colors. I still think Gaited molds actually performing a special gait are the wrong move, it's true some gaited breeds participate in Harness classes, but they don't use their specialty gaits when doing so - at least the ASB. Those are 3-gait/WTC only. Hence my belief that the ASB, a standing mold, is the best way to go if they want to include a gaited breed)
- Long shot honorable mentions include Smart Chic, Salinero, Desatado, Carrick, Valegro, and Emerson
In other Breyer-related news, which has also been published since my last post - I can also share that I'll be stewarding for the BreyerFest Open Online photo show in the fall! This will take place on PonyBytes once again. I had an excellent time working as a steward for the 2021 Open Show and I am thrilled to return! :) I am also incredibly grateful that I'll actually get a Croi after all! Since it will remain a mystery for now which color I'll get, I'm definitely sticking to my plan of not pursuing any in July. Whichever two I do not receive in the fall will go on my wish list to get someday (aka next year or later). I am quite curious to see the reveal of the third color next month! The two currently known ones I don't have a huge preference for one or the other - I don't have a strong leaning towards which one I'd like the most to get first. I wonder if the third color will change that!
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