Hi all,
I was pretty wrong in my assessment of Croi, huh? I figured out of my 3 modern conga molds, she'd be least likely to be included in this year's BreyerFest. My initial reaction was pretty painful, but these aren't "can't live without" colors, at least in the short term. Especially when people are scooping them up left and right for $1000 or more. This is not my year to be able to compete with that, even if I could get someone to let me do multiple time payments.
I could still apply to volunteer after all, but I've decided I likely want to do the live show (it's really one of my favorite parts of the event and I was considering skipping it? Plus A/C for one entire day? Who would I be to turn that down?) With the uncertainty of what time I'll leave on Sunday, I'm just not sure if I want to schedule that much of my BFest experience. Yes, even with the carrot dangling of not knowing the 3rd Croi color. I don't have any of the other rare ones anyway, so it's not like this ruined a complete conga. I'm far more concerned now with the possibility of Hammy or Bobby Jo as the Surprise and/or Glossy Marc of Charm as a show prize. If neither of them are used in obtainable roles, maybe I'll attempt to get myself a Croi. (Things I consider Unobtainable - Overall Show Prizes, BCC prizes, and Raffles. There is a very slim chance that I *could* win an overall show prize or raffle myself, but I do not count on having that level of luck. And if I don't win them, the ability to afford the going rate for any would be significantly paywalled for a long time.)
Anyway, I am slowly turning my thoughts towards other projects, as the year goes on. Breyer Favorites Surveys are finally up now, and will be available through April 27th! Check out more information at https://sites.google.com/view/amanda-breyer-horse-survey-hub/home!
I did minimally participate in NaMoPaiMo in February, by completing a couple of project horses that needed a little more work to finish up.
Mares in Black's March Madness is coming back soon as well! I always have fun making the brackets. Keep an eye on https://www.maresinblack.com/ for more info and to play along!
As a result of preparing the bracket, I thought once again about my picks for the Surprise mold. It was recently revealed that the name and mold do not necessarily pair up - the name is chosen without knowing what the mold is. This is quite interesting, considering how well it actually worked out last year. In any case, this allows me to widen my guess pool a *little*, and think about other patterns more than the name.
I don't have a definitive list at this point (if I did before, I am feeling less confident), but rather a few different categories ranging from More Likely to Honorable Mentions:
In the More Likely Category (aka Top 5 in no particular order):
- ASB Stallion (2000) - a Gaited breed, most recently used in 2021 as the Flagship Horse Livingston. This mold has been used to portray a Dutch Harness Horse in the past, and is sculpted by Kathleen Moody. There is a loose pattern of her molds being used every few years as the Surprise.
- Show Jumper (2003) - I think in a previous post I mentioned the Celebration Horse - Surprise connection between Oliver and the RDS, and thought it was a good theory for True North. Well, I forgot he'll be the Holiday horse this year! Fear not, this pattern works for a different mold as well; the Show Jumper. Ballynoe Castle was the 2020 Celebration model, and this is even the same amount of time between as with the Cleveland Bay - a 3 year gap. The Show Jumper is also a good harness horse for Performance classes (high action harness sports).
- Goffert (2005) - How many times has this guy shown up on Surprise prediction lists? If there's any year that is a good match for him, it's this one. While the name doesn't necessarily hint to the mold, Breyer has still tried to do better at matching the Special Runs to the theme in recent years, so that could be a factor. (He's a Moody too!)
- Brishen Fluffy Version (2012) - Similarly to Goffert, I believe he fits the theme really well. I don't think we'd see a mix of different legs, so I separated the "Brishen" and "Laredo" versions into "two" molds. However, I'd assume all mane and tail combos would be fair game. While the Tiny Brishen is being used as an Event Stablemate, I don't see why that would impact the larger one's use, but I am slightly cautious about it because we don't have enough evidence for that being true or not.
- Forever Saige (2015) - Out of all the stock/mustang types, I think she is most likely. Being leery of the name now, I am not envisioning sassy stock or mustangs as much, because they don't really strike me as good harness types, but she's approaching the average age for the Surprise mold, and I think she is likely more popular with the general population than the hobby (but she does have plenty of fans! She just tends to be kind of polarizing).
- Wixom (2001) - Breed and pose wise, I think she'd be an excellent choice, but she's on the older side of the options (out of what I find plausible), and being even larger than the Cleveland Bay, it doesn't seem likely to many that she'd stay at the $85 mark.
- Strapless (2003) - She could easily be swapped with the Show Jumper, as they are both the same age, same breed type, and have different manes and tails, I just think he's a more "exciting" choice. Both molds were also used in BreyerFest 2020.
- BGB (2008) - Gaited breed types feel a bit less likely to me, especially those performing gaits (which would not be accurate for a harness setup), but she's a good age (15) and is definitely still popular enough.
- Bobby Jo (2015) - I had her higher on my list prior to learning about the supposed lack of connection between the name and mold. She just doesn't scream "harness horse" to me, though at the same age as Saige, she could be considered just as likely within the stock/mustang breed category.
- Vermeer (2020) - Vermeer is on paper, an excellent mold choice for this theme. My one concern is how new he is (3 years) despite not being as popular as others around his age. I wouldn't see him causing a frenzy at the Park though, so that's why he remains on the list. He gets bonus points for having very few releases so far compared to his age group as well.
- Smart Chic Olena (2005) - He's another one I thought about when considering the "Western" angle to the name. However, he feels a bit less popular than some of the other options, and he's getting up to the "older" section of the modern era as well at 18 years old.
- Salinero (2007) - Personally I don't really see this being his year, last year would have been a great match for him, and he's more "dressage" than harness. Still there's nothing really obvious to me to disqualify him right out.
- Desatado (2012) - This is the only Spanish mold I kept in the lineup, he does kind of feel like a reach. Modestly popular and 11 years old puts him in a good position though.
- Carrick (2013) - He's another "sporty" type that doesn't feel like he quite fits the theme, but I also don't see anything majorly detracting from him in this regard.
- Valegro (2015) - Similar to Salinero, he's way more dressage than harness, but I think he's popular enough to have a Surprise someday. Most likely, not this year, but I could of course be wrong.
- Emerson (2018) - At 5 years old, I think he's pretty comfortably into the "could be the Surprise based on age" category, and he is popular enough without being too popular (notice how long Chadwick remained in stock last fall). I also feel like he's not right for the theme but being a standing mold, he might be more likely than some of the other sport molds in this category.
- Hamilton (2019) - Sigh. Yes, I know many people are actually putting him in the top 10, and breed-wise, I'd buy it. I am still holding strong on my two main sticking points of "wrong gait for harness" and "too new/popular still". Yes, Dundee was 3 years old at the time of his Surprise (the youngest Surprise mold to date), but please consider that was 2021, the only fully virtual event that was planned that way from the beginning. Breyer knew they'd be shipping these out rather than having people opening them at the Park. Also, I believe Dundee was a bit less popular in 2021 than Hamilton still is now. I would say hammy might have been de-crowned as "most popular mold 5 years or younger" by Fireheart, but he's still VERY in demand. Breyer made 1000 of Tahoe after all, and as far as I know had no issue selling them. I know there was 1 waitlist but not sure if they even did an 2nd one? I am so tempted to create a hashtag like #HamiltonForBreyerFestSurprise2024 or something 😂
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