Narrowing the Field

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 Hi all!


Hopefully short post today - I have been away for a bit I know! I've been super busy with work and prepping for the upcoming show season. Thus, frequently left with little energy to spare for other projects. 

March Madness is well underway over at https://www.maresinblack.com/marchmadness 

However, 2 of the options have already been fully eliminated in actuality due to recent reveals, regardless of how many votes they get. 

The most recent Web Special is Magpie, a metallic blue-black pinto on the Show Jumper. These have started to arrive and the waitlist went out this week.


The Show Jumper has been one of my top guesses for a while, so it's very interesting to see him eliminated as a contender for the Surprise. As a refresher, no mold that's been the Surprise has ever had another new run introduced in the same year. It's unclear how much of this is by design, but it was confirmed in the last MIB episode where Kat & Jamie from Breyer were guests (EP 99) that BreyerFest planning DOES start sooner than planning for the following year's regular lineup (probably also non-BFest SR, but that part wasn't discussed). Of course, we don't know how early the horses are designed within that window. However, the pattern has proven itself every year so far (going back to 2011). The only overlap in production on the same mold as the Surprise is seen with current RR that have continued from past years. 

The other mold has not been eliminated for sure YET, but it's looking highly likely and we should learn more soon. Breyer posted this teaser today, which is an exact match for Forever Saige's pattern, upon close inspection:

This piece of the pattern lines up exactly with her barrel on her show side

(Image credit to BreyerHorseRef, cropping and enlarging made it easier for the comparison)

Due to this, it's very likely the reveal will be an alternate color Forever Saige as the Best Customs Contest prize. Saige wasn't very high on my list for the Surprise, but if it had been her I wouldn't have been completely shocked. 

At least in good news for me, I don't collect the Saige mold. If she's the BCC we've avoided Hamilton for another year (though considering how much the raffle one goes for I wouldn't be able to afford a BCC of him ANYWAY). 

If I never posted it here, my top 5 most likely candidates for the BCC at the beginning of the year were Kalahkaari, Saige, Yasmin, Hamilton, and Fireheart. Considering the previous pattern of having the same base coat for 4 years at a time, I also figured we'd be due for a new color, with my guesses as palomino, gray, and chestnut (so out of those I have 2 chances to be right 😂) I wasn't sure if Saige would be a good candidate for gray, if it would be too close to her original color, and Fireheart would be out for Palomino, but the other 3 would work for all 3 of my predicted colors. 

Overall, my guesses for the next 3 years probably won't change too much (except for adding any new PC with patterned coats) whether it's palomino or chestnut:
  • Desatado 
  • Kalahkaari
  • Falhofnir
  • Yasmin
  • Hamilton
  • Troubadour
  • Vermeer
  • Constantia
  • Fireheart (If Chestnut)
  • Carina/Selene (If Palomino)
Which patterned PC do you think would look the best in chestnut or palomino? (Out of those who haven't been a BCC prize yet!)


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