Hi everyone!!
Now that we are officially in BreyerFest week, and all of the auction lots have been revealed, it's time to take an (actual) final look at the Surprise predictions! Last time I gave some of my guesses...let's see if any of my opinions have changed.
One thing besides the auction reveals that came to light was the mention of a pattern that I hadn't noticed before, which was the frequency of Kathleen Moody molds as the Surprise.
2009 - QHG
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo
2018 - Smarty Jones
2019 - Andalusian Stallion
2020 - Giselle
2021 - Dundee
If this pattern continues, it would suggest that since there has been 2 years since the last Moody mold, we are due for another one. Which is leading a lot of folks to think Othello will be used. He is not in the auction, he is not the same breed type as last year, and if you go by the date he was released in plastic, he falls well into the expected range for age of mold. Plus, he was used just last year for Equidae, and recent production within 1-2 years prior to the Surprise is a common theme between most of the previous Surprises (except for a few that had concurrent production with an existing RR). He is also very on the nose for the "rotating draft" theme. Othello used to be very "hot" in popularity, but I think he'd be modest enough by now to not cause a stampede.
So, Othello is definitely among my top choices...who else am I considering?
The Cleveland Bay has been one of my top choices all along. While he's not quite a draft, he's a pretty heavy horse that is often assigned a light draft or draft cross for a breed. He is also not present in the auction, and he has several mane/tail options, which is not a full indicator - to date, only Latigo and Roxy have taken advantage of the possibilities - but interesting to consider. CB is also modestly popular and has a dedicated following. Where he does not totally track with the indicators is that his last production run was 2019, as Oliver. I would not see his use as the Celebration model to preclude him as an option, but he has not had any other mass production since (he was featured in the 2020 auction).
Wixom is another modern draft mold that has not shown up elsewhere for BreyerFest (Georg) or had other releases in 2022 (Shannondell). She was also most recently seen last fall as Brunhilde, which is quite the German name. However, just due to her massive size, I'm less sure about her fitting the bill, especially with the continued $85 price point. I probably mentioned this in a previous blog post, but as an interesting note, the Wixom mold is 21 years old this year (legal drinking age in the USA) and I thought this was comical considering the theme!
Shannondell has appeared in the auction, so now I'm like 99% certain he's off the table entirely, even though the auction is the loose mane/tail and we still haven't seen the braided version this year...
The final draft-ish mold I have in my Surprise guesses in Goffert, but I think he's quite a long shot and maybe not popular enough at this point to warrant being the Surprise. Although, his most recent production was Crystalline in 2020 and he was in the auction last year.
As far as the non- drafts:
I'm still also a bit stuck on the Warmblood theme, but I'm kind of out of options that I think are likely. Bristol was on my list, but he's in the auction. I do still have a wildcard pick with Salinero, being a German WB created by a German sculptor, even with his inclusion in the Ponies & Palm Trees event, which is not until the fall. The Surprise is usually not used again in the same year for anything else, but 200 is such a small run...you never know. They like curveballs every once in a while! The other 2 Warmblood types I had were the Show Jumper and Strapless, but like with Goffert, I am not sure that they're popular enough.
My final option as far as breed types go was Light Breeds, and I had 3 Arabians on my list - Shagya Arabian, Arabian Mare (Oasis), and Weathergirl. The Shagya and Weathergirl were both sculpted by Brigitte Eberl, so I figured that could be their "German" tie in, and the Arab Mare has multi mane and tail options (with a new combo debuted recently) as well as being a Moody mold.
Other mold picks that I've seen a lot of recently, which I had counted out for various reasons:
ASB Stallion, Bluegrass Bandit (Moody & Partially Moody molds) - I had counted these out due to believing that an American breed would not work well with a German theme.
Bobby Jo - She is "rotating", and if it were not for the breed type repeat, I'd have her on my list too.
Andalusian Mare, Lippizan Mare - Also Eberl sculpts, again I felt that the Spanish breed type was a bit too far off for the theme. Then again, Latigo for an Indian theme was *very* off the mark so who knows? Both mares have also previously been sold without their foals.
What are my picks in order?
I'm quite unsure of a specific order at this point, other than I have joined Team Othello and he's now at the top of my list! Otherwise, Cleveland Bay, Wixom, Arabian Mare, maybe Salinero? as my top picks?
OTHER THEORIES
While unlikely, it's possible that Breyer could change up the formula with such ideas as:
- Using different Draft (or other) breed molds rather than all colors on the same mold (I think this is quite unlikely, as it is probably more cost-effective to run the same mold for an entire run rather than a few different ones, but I'm open to the idea, especially with how large the overall run amount is getting.)
- Introducing a new mold as the Surprise, or a new plastic version of a Gallery mold never before in plastic (Shire Mare, anyone? She's a Moody!) (While this would be really cool, I hesitate to back this one only due to how crazy it would make everyone.)
BREYERFEST ANTICIPATION HIGHLIGHTS!
My tickets arrived right before my vacation, and I'm happy to report that my All-Access was selected for a second Surprise and Marzipan! That puts my total Special Runs up to 2x Surprise, Marzipan, and Stein.
Yesterday, I dropped off my ticket books with one of my friends, who is traveling with my friend who is doing my pickups. They are leaving for KY tomorrow, yahoo!
I am sooo glad to not have to go through the same torture as last year of waiting for EVERYTHING to ship! (If you haven't been here the whole time, I started this blog out of desperation for hobby involvement while I was on social media hiatus due to BreyerFest shipping...I didn't want to ruin the surprise of opening my boxes! Worst. Decision. Ever! ... I am happy about the blog though!) The only things I will need to wait for will be the Online Exclusives shipping, the in person stuff I will pick up next week when the crew returns from KY.
Do you think they'll offer the pre-order glossy Limited Edition Traditionals again this year? Not sure that I'd go for any...since it was just the portraits before maybe the Georg wouldn't be included if they did? He'd be nice in gloss...other than Georg I don't think I'd order any of the others? Chablis is nice but I don't collect that mold.
We STILL do not know the Sectional Champ and Reserve prizes for the Live Open Show! Ahhh! Normally these are revealed at least a month or 2 ahead of time? If Glossy Marc of Charm is involved, I will absolutely need to track one down. At least there's like 50 of those.
Hamilton is 99% likely not the Volunteer (Ambassador) or Surprise models since he's in the auction. Yesss!
I am already pouring over the photos and videos folks are posting who have arrived in KY! Looking forward to watching the NAN updates the next few days and cheering on my friends!
An Astrid with ANOTHER new mane (and tail?) is in the auction so this might mean split mane/tail Rapunzel confirmed? Also, my favorite auction model is obviously the Hammy but that Astrid is also really lovely, and the OCEAN BLUE IBM AND PAF!
I have no clue what the other split variations will be, if any, or if there are rare variations, but I am EXCITED to find out!
I wonder where they're putting the live stream booth?
I noticed they have warehouse finds on eBay again, but so far no mention of grab bags. I tried for those last year and no luck...wonder if it's worth trying if they have them. I should have better internet...
The beer garden tent sounds like a blast and I am a bit sad to be missing that. I imagine they would have pretzels. Also really interested to see what the VIP tent is like considering I don't get to try it myself!
While I imagine the lines will still be long on Friday morning, I am very curious to see how it plays out after that. Will people opt for going when the line is shorter? Maybe some folks enjoy the lines and will go through specifically when it's crowded!
Definitely curious to see what the turnout will be like...many folks like me bought tickets but won't be there in person. In-person tickets were still available quite late in the game. The CHIN has been able to get pretty far down their wait list for rooms due to cancellations. Will the hotel still be packed like sardines Thursday-Saturday nights, per usual? (As much as room shopping/chatting with folks is my favorite part of the event, this is one of the reasons I decided not to go in person this year..."con crud" was quite common in the past. If things go well and not a lot of people get sick, it will make me more confident in trying to go next year.)
THREE MORE SLEEPS UNTIL BREYERFEST! (well, the Artisans Gallery/Thursday night activities anyway!)
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