Hi all!
I've been away for much longer this time, usually I try to not go more than a month! This particular absence is due to my BF moving apartments, and much of my things along with that (including a good portion of my collection!) We've been super busy since deciding to move back in April, originally we wanted a house, but the market is skyrocketing still where we live. We lucked into finding a nicer apartment in a complex across town from where he was previously (like, the timing on it all was just so incredible!) and got set to packing and preparing to move at the beginning of this month. Things are still being organized and put into place, but it's looking nice so far. Due to the extra space, he now has a private office that is larger than the one he was sharing with my collection before! I have a "pony closet" for horse shelving and an extra alcove area that will be additional hobby storage, photography space, and staging for show prep.
2010 is the only year since the introduction of a Gambler's Choice in 2009 to not have a Surprise Special Run included in the lineup, for reasons unknown. Perhaps Breyer initially thought the 2009 Surprise didn't go over as well as they'd anticipated, but whatever the reason, they adjusted their focus and brought the concept back in 2011.
2011's Fairytail theme had 3 common models and 1 rare in the Surprise lineup - this time, on a modern mold, Ethereal. Original price was $65.
TOTAL: 1230
Pearl/Champagne - 400
Chestnut Overo - 400
Buckskin Appaloosa - 400
Palomino "Fire" Appaloosa Pattern - 30
2012 was the first year to have the matte/glossy splits! This really dialed in the hype for the surprise and the format has been used ever since. Original price was $75.
TOTAL: 1342
Bay Pinto - 364 Matte/54 Glossy
Silver Bay - 336 Matte/56 Glossy
Grullo - 336 Matte/56 Glossy
Black Leopard - 84 Matte/56 Glossy
In 2013, Roxy was the featured mold for the surprise. This was the first time a mold was used as a surprise that has interchangeable manes and tails - while each color featured one specific combination of mane/tail, it was still a very exciting concept! Also, from here onward, the glossies have all been the same run amount and the mattes usually vary. Original price was $75.
TOTAL: 1916
Chestnut Appaloosa - 552 Matte/84 Glossy
Dapple Gray - 470 Matte/84 Glossy
Blue Roan Tovero - 168 Matte/84 Glossy
Grulla Tobiano - 470 Matte/84 Glossy
2014 was the first year that Breyer added micro runs to every Special Run, including the Surprise as a part of their (25th) Anniversary celebration. This is also the first year that the price point of $85 was used for the surprise, which to Breyer's credit, it has remained ever since.
TOTAL: 2665
Palomino Tobinao - 720 Matte/120 Glossy
Dark Bay - 660 Matte/120 Glossy
Sorrel Overo - 540 Matte/120 Glossy*
Varnish Roan Appaloosa - 240 Matte/120 Glossy*
*It is widely believed in the hobby that the amounts of matte for the overo and appaloosa were swapped, that the sorrel overo is in fact the rarest matte.
Silver Charm - 25
In 2015, the Surprise was Lonesome Glory.
TOTAL: 3060
Chestnut Overo - 960 Matte/120 Glossy
Dun Tobiano - 780 Matte/120 Glossy
Perlino - 280 Matte/120 Glossy
Dark Bay Appaloosa - 560 Matte/120 Glossy
2016's Samba Surprise on Esprit marked the first inclusion of an unrealistic colored model as a surprise option, since the 2009 series. It was also the first time any single combination of finish & color had a run size of more than 1000.
TOTAL: 3700
Black Overo - 1223 Matte/149 Glossy
Palomino - 627 Matte/149 Glossy
Translucent Decorator - 329 Matte/149 Glossy
Dun Tobiano - 925 Matte/149 Glossy
In 2017, Latigo was the surprise mold.
TOTAL: 3800
Bay Tobiano - 1225 Matte/175 Glossy
Chestnut Overo - 650 Matte/175 Glossy
Pintaloosa - 425 Matte/175 Glossy
Buckskin - 800 Matte/175 Glossy
2018's Dark Horse Surprise, Smarty Jones, offered the first set of more than 4 colors (excluding the Anniversary silver charm) since 2009. It is also the first mold used as the Surprise that has a base.
TOTAL: 4000
Palomino Overo - 1050 Matte/175 Glossy
Leopard Appaloosa - 850 Matte/175 Glossy
Bay Tobiano - 575 Matte/175 Glossy
Black - 225 Matte/175 Glossy
Flame Decorator - 425 Matte/175 Glossy
In 2019, the Andalusian surprise was the first to have at least 200 of each glossy. It also featured a special Pearl micro run for the 30th Anniversary celebration (all SR had micro runs that year as well). As an interesting note, the decorator was also the first model (aside from the micro runs) to NOT have a matte/glossy split since that concept was introduced in 2012.
TOTAL: 4250
Lime Green Dapple Translucent Deco - 400
Rose Gray - 520 Matte/200 Glossy
Chestnut Pinto - 850 Matte/200 Glossy
Pearl/Champagne - 650 Matte/200 Glossy
Medium Dapple Gray - 1000 Matte/200 Glossy
Pearl Black Leopard - 30
2020, Giselle's Slainte Surprise, was an interesting year! Not only due to the pandemic, but also because there were only 4 models in the set after 2 years of having 5 (plus the anniversary micro run in 2019), and because it was the first time since matte/glossy splits were introduced that the mattes also had the same run amounts! This has meant that secondary pricing on these models since then has varied more on color popularity.
TOTAL: 4500
Palomino - 800 Matte/325 Glossy
Red Roan Pinto - 800 Matte/325 Glossy
Dark Bay Leopard - 800 Matte/325 Glossy
Silver Black - 800 Matte/325 Glossy
Most recently in 2021, Dundee was the surprise mold. The matte versions were returned to having varied amounts, and a total of 5 different colorways were used. An important note here is that the overall total jumped by a much larger amount than previously seen between years.
TOTAL: 6000
Rainbow Leopard Appaloosa - 700 Matte/325 Glossy
Flaxen Liver Roan - 900 Matte/325 Glossy
Palomino Pintaloosa - 975 Matte/325 Glossy
Splash Champagne - 800 Matte/325 Glossy
Roan Sabino - 1000 Matte/325 Glossy
As for 2022? We know there is a total of 7500, which is 1500 more than last year and 3000 more than 2020! While we are still a few weeks away from knowing which mold it is, I'm willing to bet there are definitely 5 colors, maybe even 6.
MY FINAL PICKS FOR THE SURPRISE!
I'm going to play around with the order of my previous picks a little bit. This will differ from my blog posts earlier in the year.
1. Cleveland Bay (He's a "drafty" mold, despite not being a full on heavy horse, he has multiple mane and tail options, and he still has a pretty limited color palette so far. Plus he could be assigned as a heavy cob/mixed breed and could be nearly any realistic color.)
2. Wixom (While she wouldn't be my first pick out of the draft molds, Georg is 100% off the table appearing as an Online Exclusive, and Shannondell is very unlikely due to having 2 other releases this year. Though she doesn't have much feathering, I think she's at least more "typey" as a European draft than Othello.)
3. Bristol (I wanted to have a warmblood/sport horse pretty far up in my list, and that would have been Salinero, but he's been announced as the Event Model for Breyer's exclusive event, Ponies & Palm Trees, which gives me pause to include him as a Surprise candidate, at least this far up my list.)
4. Othello (I'm still pretty stuck on the "draft" idea and warmbloods, so despite not feeling like the greatest candidate, he at least ticks most of the boxes in terms of not being disqualified.)
5. Strapless (She's not the most popular anymore, but she does have more than one mane and tail and also has a somewhat limited color palette.)
6. Salinero (he WAS at the top of my list before the Ponies & Palm Trees announcement...It might not disqualify him entirely since that event is not until fall and it's only a run of 200, but it's enough to bump him down to here, in case it does.)
7. Arabian Mare (Oasis) - While I think that Light breeds are not the most likely, we are still overdue for one and she has a lot of customization options.
8. Shagya Arabian (This is another out of left field, but not entirely impossible guess. I don't disqualify them based on being in the CC Appreciation since that is usually made by glossing leftover stock rather than new.)
9. Shannondell, but only the braided version (The loose mane/tail version was used for Cardinal, and the VC flockie had the mane and tail removed entirely, so perhaps there's a slim outer chance that the braided version only is used for the Surprise. I really doubt it but...you never know.)
10. Runners up that did not previously make my list: Weathergirl, Goffert, and the Show Jumper
SR VARIATION, NON-SURPRISE HISTORY
This section specifically covers variations in other Special Runs outside of the Surprises.
The first ever split run was in 2011 - Once Upon a Time came in matte and glossy, with 375 pieces of each. Since then, Breyer has used splits of colorway, finish, and sometimes mane/tail variations in special runs. These are usually not announced ahead of time - or they are at least not revealed until very close to the event in order to generate more interest. However, any pre-reveals tend to be limited to models that are split 50/50.
2012 continued the matte/glossy 50/50 split with Sixes and Sevens, 400 each finish.
There were no split special runs in 2013.
In 2014, Gossamer came in matte & glossy, with 575 matte and 600 glossy - the extra 25 was the Silver Charm version for the anniversary. It is interesting that they chose to make the matte slightly rarer than the glossy, in this case! Each special run from this year included 25 pieces in silver charm to celebrate the anniversary, which was a total surprise to guests!
2015 also did not feature any split runs.
2016 brought back the split runs with Namid in glossy and matte, 800 apiece.
2017's matte/glossy split was Indu, with 800 pieces for each finish.
2018 was the very first colorway 50/50 split, Dead Heat in chestnut and palomino, 900 of each color. This year also featured Sierra Rose as the matte/glossy split with 725 of each finish.
2019, another anniversary year, had two splits in addition to the anniversary micro runs (pearly, alternate color variants of each SR, 30 pieces each). Diana was the first mane/tail swap, with 885 each loose mane/tail and braided mane/tail. Quill in his typical color came in matte and glossy, runs of 825 each.
2020 featured Epona as the mane/tail split (braided vs. loose), 800 pieces each, and Thorn in matte and glossy, 750 pieces each.
In 2021, there was a mix of smaller "rare" variations and 50/50 splits. Tassili featured a mane & tail (and ears!) split, between his Marwari and Barb forms - 1000 pieces of each. Pech Merle had a 50/50 colorway split, between the advertised bay appaloosa and a buckskin appaloosa - 950 of each. Finally, Seurat had the matte/glossy split, with 1000 of each finish. All of the other non-surprise Special Runs had rare variations of 200 each within their total amount. Considering that this was a non-Anniversary year, having the rare variants was quite the curveball. I suspect that this was due to the larger run amounts because of BreyerFest being online, so that there were still rarer pieces to satisfy the folks who go for those. Or perhaps they just wanted an excuse to try out some crazy color ideas, which I think worked out really nicely with the theme!
For 2022...predictions!
The run sizes are still fairly large, but with the return to in-person, and the restriction that the majority of SR will be only available at the Park, I'm not sure that we'd see the smaller variants again. I do think at least a couple of the 50/50 splits are likely.
Run Totals:
Landler - 2300
Elbe & Spree - 2200
Stein - 2300
Bears set - 1600
Marzipan - 2200
Franz - 2000
Brahms - 2200
Rapunzel - 2400
The only model that we know of having mane & tail options here is Rapunzel, and with this being the introduction of her new mane and tail (plus the tie-in with her name), I am hesitant to think she'd have a split between mane and tail options.
It's tougher to determine who might be the matte/gloss split, but I can say if a model is promoted as being glossy, it is not the 50/50 finish split, so that leaves out Brahms. I can't really see them doing a finish split for Franz, since his concept is rather specific as well. I think any of the newer molds would look nice in glossy - especially the mare and foal set.
For the color 50/50 split, I could see them doing that for Brahms, only because Pech Merle had it last year, and Big Ben is the oldest mold in this lineup. This is the one I'm least sure of since there are many options and they could do alternate colors for any of them, really. I'm still lowkey rooting for an alternate set of the Bears in pale yellow (Pineapple), Orange, and blue (representing the special Blue Raspberry hats Haribo is including in their packs for their anniversary).
I have to admit though, I'm looking at those run counts, especially the ones ending in 200 and 300 quite suspiciously, so perhaps more unannounced variations are in our future...we'll find out in just a couple weeks!
Though I won't be attending BF in person, I'm excited to get my pickups and follow along with the fun online! :D I hope if you're going, you have safe travels and a great experience!
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