Hi everyone!
The Surprise theme for this year is "rotating drafts"!
Getting more into the BreyerFest spirit, as more reveals have come along!
Last time, I mentioned Landelier, the gray Totilas, and Montanara, the 90's mold Friesian.
Since then, there have been a few more reveals, besides the theme of the Surprise!
Elbe and Spree are a Special Run mare and foal pair! Cute, but not sure if they are a must-have personally.
Stein is a Special Run Fireheart. I think this color is really neat, and I think I like it better than the PC color.
Marzipan is also a Special Run. Again, he's one of those "I think I like him" but he has not reached out and grabbed me.
The most unique reveal so far is this set of Bear Cubs, the Other Animal Special Run for this year. They come in "special packaging" and they are SCENTED! They are meant to represent the gummy bear, a candy often associated with Germany.
As I'm working on this post, the newest reveal is a Limited Edition on the Flash mold!
1. Any mold that has been revealed for any other purpose at BFest 2022 will NOT be the Surprise.
- For example, the Surprise mold will not be used as contest or show prizes
2. Any mold that is starting a new run for any purpose in 2022 will not be the Surprise.
- The Surprise mold is not used again for any other new releases in the same year
- This does NOT exclude any model that is currently in production, but is not a new release. In 2012, the Flash Surprise was made at the same time as Little Texas who had debuted the year prior, 2015's Lonesome Glory was being made at the same time as Zenyatta's production was winding down, the Smarty Jones Surprise of 2018 had co-production with Secretariat, and 2021's Dundee was in production at the same time as Peptoboonsmal (who was released prior to 2021).
3. Any mold that has been used as the Surprise before will not be used again so soon.
- There are so many molds that Breyer has access to, it would be a poor decision to use one that had already been featured as a Surprise.
4. The mold used will *very likely* not be the same Breed type as the previous year. Last year, we saw a Stock Horse mold.
5. The Surprise has never been a Horse & Foal set, or a set of foals. Based on this year's theme, that doesn't seem very likely (or appropriate?) either!
6. The Surprise has always been a full-sized horse- no small ponies. Molds like Croi cannot be ruled out though, since even though they are ponies, they are as large as some other Traditionals. (This was somewhat true of Flash, Morgans are often on the small side and some folks show this mold as pony breeds.) We can likely rule out smaller molds like Bouncer or Misty, though.
Next, here are some factors that are uncertain or inconsistent:
1. There is much variation in the age of the molds at the time they are used.
- Some years they have been younger (less than 8 years) and some have been slightly older (8-15 years). However, outside of the very first Surprise, the QHG, none of the molds used have been older than 15 at the time. (The QHG is an anomaly for plenty of reasons besides that, so I often don't include him in the analysis.)
- I would take a guess that no mold younger than 3 will be used. In the PC year, only the first release (usually) is used during BreyerFest and that is always a limited run (customs contest prize, raffle, or auction). In the second year, they seem to be used at BreyerFest again, often as Special Runs or Limited Editions/Store Specials, but never as the Surprise.
2. The mold used for the Surprise is always a decently popular, but never wildly popular mold at the time.
- It's something that is popular enough to have a wide appeal, but is not so popular that it would cause mass chaos at the horse park! (I think this is part of the reason they generally use molds that are at least a few years old.)
3. So far, every Surprise has featured different colors of the same mold.
- I kind of doubt that they'd mix it up by using more than one mold, but they do like to give us curveballs sometimes, so I never rule out that possibility. That's why this point is in this section and not the one above.
All of that being said, let's take a look at some of the molds that are now off the table due to being new releases for 2022:
Akhal Teke
Brishen (Iberian version)
Cantering WB (Glossy Lionel)
Firefly & Hawkeye
Fireheart
Friesian (90's)
Gaming Stock Horse (Wyatt)
Georg (Honeybear)
Geronimo
Morgan (Troubadour)
Misty & Stormy
Totilas
Welsh Mare & Foal
Flash and Dundee are already disqualified due to being prior Surprise runs, along with:
QH Gelding
Ethereal
Roxy
Nokota
Lonesome Glory
Esprit
Latigo
Smarty Jones
Andalusian Stallion
Giselle
A few molds are no longer in use or are confirmed to no longer exist, including:
Alborozo
Halla
TWH
Due to previous patterns, I can probably safely eliminate any mold that is older than the year 2000 at this point. I will also be removing any molds that are unquestionably Stock mold breeds as I doubt they will do two of those in a row. Foal molds will also not be included as they have never been a part of the Surprise (and there is already a mare and foal pair in the Special Run lineup). The "cartoony" molds (Rain, Spirit, Boomerang) I very highly doubt would be used, so I'm eliminating them as well. That leaves us with:
ASB Stallion
Andalusian Mare
Arabian Mare (MAW/Oasis)
Ashquar
Bluegrass Bandit
Brishen (Fluffy Leg version)*
Bristol
Cleveland Bay
Connemara (Croi)
Desatado
Friesian Sporthorse
Goffert
Kennebec Count
Lippizan Mare
Marchador
Marwari
Mustang Mare (Saige)
Othello
Peruvian Paso
Racking Saddlebred (Hamilton)
Ruffian
Salinero
Shagya Arab
Shannondell
Show Jumper
Silver
Spanish Stallion (Duende)
Standing TB (Emerson)
Strapless
Susecion
Valegro
Walking TB (Carrick)
Warmblood Stallion (Idocus)
Weathergirl
Wixom
Who to eliminate first?
The pattern of not being used at BreyerFest the year before being the Surprise could be used to eliminate a few molds, here. The Surprise has never been used the year directly prior to the Surprise year for something else BreyerFest related. This would kick out:
Desatado (Thornycroft)
Friesian Sport Horse (Seurat)
Marwari (Tassili)
Peruvian Paso (Gran Cavallo)
Valegro (Pollock)
Now leaving us with a slightly shorter list. Let's organize them by breed type:
GAITED &/OR SPANISH
ASB Stallion
Andalusian Mare
Bluegrass Bandit
Lippizan Mare
Marchador
Racking Saddlebred (Hamilton)
Spanish Stallion (Duende)
LIGHT, MUSTANG, OR GENERIC BREED TYPE
Arabian Mare (MAW/Oasis)
Ashquar
Kennebec Count
Mustang Mare (Saige)
Shagya Arab
Silver
Susecion
Weathergirl
DRAFT OR HEAVY COB
Brishen (Fluffy Leg version)*
Cleveland Bay
Goffert
Othello
Shannondell
Wixom
LARGE PONY
Connemara (Croi)
SPORT BREEDS
Bristol
Ruffian
Salinero
Show Jumper
Standing TB (Emerson)
Strapless
Walking TB (Carrick)
Warmblood Stallion (Idocus)
While I think many of us would like to see Croi used at some point, I just don't see her fitting this theme well, and she is out of place among the other breed types. Going through the rest- the Marchador and Kennebec Count are quite unpopular so I doubt they'd be used. I don't see them releasing Susecion without Le Fire, so she's likely out as well. A Spanish horse would not fit this theme well, so I imagine we can remove the Andalusian Mare, Lippizan Mare and Duende also. I would also say that a strongly American breed would not be in keeping with the theme, so the ASB Stallion, BGB, and Hamilton should be safe to eliminate. (Though I am still nervously staring down Hamilton just because he's so new and popular...maybe still too popular?) I know they managed to work Fireheart into the lineup (a Mustang), but only because he's a new mold, so I don't really see Saige or Silver making an appearance (plus Silver has already been so many colors!) As far as Sport breeds go, I think they are fairly likely, but I'll remove Ruffian and Emerson (and maybe Carrick?) as they are very typey Thoroughbreds rather than Warmbloods (Strapless I've seen shown either way but she does make a nice light Warmblood).
Let's add the release years and ages to the remaining molds!
LIGHT BREEDS
Arabian Mare (MAW/Oasis) - 2009 (13 years old)
Ashquar - 2013 (9 years old)
Shagya Arab - 2016 (6 years old)
Weathergirl - 2011 (11 years old)
DRAFT OR HEAVY COB
Brishen (Fluffy Leg version)* - 2012 (10 years old)
Cleveland Bay - 2006 (16 years old)
Goffert - 2005 (17 years old)
Othello - 2007 (15 years old)
Shannondell - 2016 (6 years old)
Wixom - 2001 (21 years old)
SPORT BREEDS
Bristol - 2018 (4 years old)
Salinero - 2007 (15 years old)
Show Jumper - 2004 (18 years old)
Strapless - 2003 (19 years old)
Warmblood Stallion (Idocus) - 2009 (13 years old)
Based on this list, I think that's small enough to do some final rankings. I'll go by each breed type and then an overall.
Light Breeds:
1. Arabian Mare (the various head and neck combos, plus she's in motion. And she hasn't been done in a ton of colors over the years.)
2. Shagya Arab (In motion, hasn't been used a ton yet still, and is on the newer side compared to most of the other picks)
3. Weathergirl or Ashquar (I couldn't really find a rationale for either one over the other, they are a similar age and the same breed. I would note that both are sculpted by Eberl, who is German. In case they go with that sort of easter egg!)
Draft/Heavy Cobs:
1. Cleveland Bay (While he's not a "draft" officially, he's still a part of this group. He has more than one hairdo, and is popular enough despite his age.)
2. Othello (He is celebrating his 15th anniversary this year, and is still quite popular. I was a bit unsure about the more Clydesdale-like drafts as they don't represent Germany as well, but it's not as much of a stretch for me as a Spanish or American Gaited breed would be.)
3. Shannondell (Very popular, newer mold, also has more than one hair style)
4. Wixom (She has more of the body type expected of European drafts, though some people might say she's not likely due to how large she is overall, and the price hasn't gone up from previous years- though I don't know if that would be reliable at all. Plus fun fact, the Wixom mold is "old enough to drink" in the USA, being 21...it would be funny if they acknowledged that!)
5. Goffert (He's also not that much of a draft other than having fluffy feet...I think he's a lot less popular than the Cleveland Bay though)
6. Brishen, Fluffy Feet version (*I hesitate to include him at all, since the Iberian form of him has a new release this year, but that could allow them to be considered separate molds on a technicality? He does have a lot of swapping options)
Sport Breeds:
1. Salinero (He is still quite popular, if he does not get used as a SR or portrait I think he is a good choice for the Surprise. Also an Eberl sculpt. If I can recall correctly he's been on the Surprise speculation for years)
2. Idocus (Mane and tail swaps, relatively popular)
3. Bristol (Newer and very popular, different hairdos)
4. Strapless (Not as new but also has the mane and tail swaps)
5. Show Jumper (He has the different manes and tails as well, and is a similar age to Strapless, but places below her because of his base...obviously, as we saw with Smarty, that doesn't automatically disqualify a horse, but I do think it makes him a little less likely)
OVERALL Top 10!
1. Salinero
2. Cleveland Bay
3. Idocus
4. Othello
5. Arabian Mare
6. Bristol
7. Shannondell
8. Strapless
9. Wixom
10. Shagya Arab
What are your predictions so far? Do you have any theories or factors that I missed?
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